Friday, January 4, 2013

STEVE JOBS AND THE POST-PC ERA

Each semester we host several information sessions for our MBA program. The purpose of these sessions is to not only market our program but also to answer in real time various questions prospective students might have regarding the MBA program, give them a “feel” for certain aspects of the program, and introduce them to one or more of our MBA faculty. At our last session, there was something that caught my eye. Every attendee had a tablet or a PC but the tablets outnumbered PCs by almost a 2:1 margin. This was a significant change even from the previous semester and it got me to thinking about a larger issue – PCs and their future.

In marketing, there is a well-known concept called the Product Life Cycle (PLC). Essentially, the PLC defines several stages that all products pass through beginning with introduction and ending with decline. The decline stage is almost always brought about by the introduction of a replacement product. It doesn’t happen overnight but the older product gradually fades away as sales decline. There are, as you might imagine, many well publicized examples of product decline. The TV marked the decline of the radio, electronic word processors replaced typewriters, DVDs replaced VHS tapes and laserdiscs and are in the process themselves of being replaced by streaming video. The point being that it’s fairly easy to spot decline stages in retrospect. It’s a lot more difficult to identify them early because replacement products take a bit of time to catch on with consumers. Some products are initial hits but never get over the hurdle of widespread consumer acceptance. Take the Segway – looked extremely promising at introduction but never translated over to mainstream.

Here’s a question for you to consider. Are we currently witnessing the early signs of product decline for PCs? PC sales are going to be down in 2012 for the first time in over a decade. Intel and Dell stocks, closely tied to PC sales, are both down significantly in 2012. Apple, manufacturer of the world’s best-selling tablet (the potential replacement for PCs), was up 30% in 2012. The initial projection was that tablets would outsell PCs by perhaps 2016. That estimate has been revised. Several sources are predicting channel sales of tablets will top PC shipments in 2013.

In June 2010, Steve Jobs made what many consider the first reference to the onset of the decline stage for PCs when he said, “I think PCs are going to be like trucks. Less people will need them. And this transformation is going to make some people uneasy…. because the PC has taken us a long way… We like to talk about the post-PC era, but when it really starts to happen, it’s uncomfortable…”

Put PCs on your watch list.

1 comment:

  1. Produces one of the best in the country in the current era bisbayanera yugakona nayara kate tried to confine the damage of the financial institution for a reason habese prayojana mabie good marketing plan is the best marketing plan in which the program can help you in this MBA program karemera bisbasa that will help us a lot.

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